EDIT: Since Britney didn’t perform at GMA and the song is free-falling HARD on iTunes, without further promo I’m starting to doubt “Work Bitch”‘s ability to even go platinum at this point, oh no. Everything below this paragraph has kind of gone out the window. I did not expect it to fall so hard on iTunes.
While my initial reaction to Britney Spears’ new single “Work Bitch” was not entirely positive (in fact I kind of hated it, but it’s grown on me a lot already) my general prediction of it’s chart performance remains relatively the same. Any first single by Britney Spears is bound to get big first week sales, and a lot of radio airplay (how much depends on if it gets a radio deal or not), so it’s pretty much guaranteed to do well at least in the first week, however “Work Bitch” is already faltering as less than 24 hours since it’s release it is decreasing on iTunes, failing to knock Miley Cyrus’ “Wrecking Ball” from the top spot.
As I said in my review of “Work Bitch”, EDM is on it’s way out in the US, the simple fact is that songs in that genre are not big sellers anymore. The general public is saying no to EDM, and wants something different. What we’re seeing in “Work Bitch”‘s iTunes performance is that her fans have gone out and supported her, as they will no matter what (me included, I bought the song before I’d even heard it) but now that her fans have all bought it we can start to see how casual listeners feel, and it’s not looking good.
I’m not going to base my entire prediction on it’s first day performance though, plenty of songs (Selena Gomez’s “Come & Get It” & Bruno Mars’ “Locked Out of Heaven” come to mind) don’t perform well at first but come back once radio support/a music video/promo kicks in. In fact, Britney is performing on Good Morning America on Tuesday morning which will probably (although not definitely, it depends on the performance) finally get the song to #1 on iTunes.
I think with a decent amount of promotion and an alright video “Work Bitch” will probably top out at around 1.5-2 million copies sold. If radio supports it fully and Britney does more than just the GMA performance in terms of promotion then 2-2.5 million could be possible but I’m thinking the lower prediction will probably be more accurate. On the Billboard Hot 100 I think the song will struggle to make kit into the top 5, but it might hang around between #10-5 for a while (possibly similar to how “Applause” by Lady Gaga is doing).
I have a feeling that with “bitch” in the title and with less and less EDM songs making it into the pop radio top 10 that radio might not fully back “Work Bitch” so we could potentially see a fairly short chart run for the song, which is disappointing. However if Britney really gives her all into promoting the song for several weeks “Work Bitch” could go further than I think.
I’m going to be bold and predict a maximum of a #4 peak for “Work Bitch” on the Billboard Hot 100 and hedge my bets on it selling a little over 2 million when all is said and done. It’ll be a decent hit for Britney, but in the end it’s probably going to be fairly forgettable and not make a whole lot of impact on the charts or the general public. I do kind of hope I’m wrong though because Britney herself actually seems quite involved in this song, the first time we’ve seen her interested in her career in quite a while.
What do you think of my prediction? How do you think this song is going to do?
Thanks for reading,